Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000 on Monday as a diplomatic pause between the United States and Iran eased one of the sharpest geopolitical pressures weighing on risk assets. Brent crude dropped roughly 7% after both sides held fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and equities moved higher alongside Bitcoin, which CoinDesk reported was trading near $65,000 heading into a busy week for markets.
What Drove the Move
The Iran-U.S. standoff had been a direct headwind for Bitcoin over the past week. According to Decrypt, Bitcoin ETFs shed $465 million over two days — with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for nearly $415 million of those outflows — as analysts pointed to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and fears about Federal Reserve rate policy. The reversal on Monday suggests that relief on the geopolitical front was enough, for now, to pull buyers back in.
The Fed is still very much in the picture. The FOMC meets Wednesday, and options traders appear to be pricing in a calm outcome. CoinDesk noted the Bitcoin put/call ratio has dropped from around 0.76 in late June to roughly 0.52 today, meaning traders are carrying far less downside protection than they were a month ago. Short-term hedges have also cheapened significantly. That positioning reflects a market that expects the Fed meeting to pass without a major shock — though a surprise on rates could quickly change the math.
Long-Term Holders Going Quiet
Separate from the day's price action, Galaxy Research data cited by Cointelegraph offers a longer-range signal worth noting. Dormant Bitcoin movement — coins that haven't moved in a year or more suddenly becoming active — has fallen to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2022. Heavy profit-taking from long-term holders earlier this year appears to be fading. Historically, when older coins stop moving, it often reflects holders choosing to sit tight rather than sell into uncertainty. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it removes one consistent source of selling pressure.
Strategy Stays on the Sidelines
MicroStrategy parent company Strategy went five straight weeks without buying Bitcoin, according to both The Block and Decrypt. The firm did, however, raise its USD cash reserve to $3.75 billion — selling $544.5 million in MSTR shares in the process — and spent $25 million buying back its own preferred stock. Michael Saylor teased on social media that another announcement may be coming, though Strategy's 843,775 BTC position currently sits roughly $9.3 billion underwater at today's prices, with an average cost basis of $75,476 per coin.
That gap between Strategy's cost basis and current prices is a useful reminder that even the most committed institutional holders are not immune to extended drawdowns. The firm has shown no sign of selling, but its pause in accumulation reflects the real cost discipline that large treasury operations require.
What to Watch This Week
- Wednesday's FOMC decision — any tone shift on rate cuts could move Bitcoin quickly in either direction.
- Iran-U.S. situation — the pause is described as temporary; any escalation could reverse Monday's oil and risk-asset relief.
- ETF flow data — after two days of heavy outflows, whether institutional buyers return will be closely watched.
For people using Bitcoin to support charitable causes, the current range-bound price environment can actually make budgeting donations more predictable than during sharp rallies or sell-offs. Steady prices give both donors and charities a cleaner window to plan and execute Bitcoin transfers without outsized conversion risk.